Should We Fear An Increase In Subscription Prices?

Mobile plans have already jumped 31% in one year in France. If the dismantling of SFR is confirmed, the end of the price war could be declared.

With the takeover of SFR under negotiation for 20.35 billion euros, the question that haunts the subscribers of the red square operator is simple: will my bill increase? Economists, European precedents and market data converge on an answer that does not please consumers.

Mobile already on the rise, fiber spared

Prices did not wait for the buyout to be finalized to move. According to the Ariase barometer from April 2026, the average monthly cost of a mobile plan with unlimited calls and at least 20 GB of data jumped by 31.1% over one year, to reach 13.34 euros per month. Just a year ago, a 30 GB package was around 10 euros. Today, operators offer more generous envelopes, but at prices a third higher. Fixed Internet remains stable: the entry-level fiber box only increased by 1.1% over one year according to the same barometer. This asymmetry is explained by the structure of the markets: fiber is based on shared infrastructures open to all operators by ARCEP, while mobile depends on rare frequencies and proprietary networks.

What European precedents say

Economic theory is clear on so-called “4 to 3” mergers: they raise prices. In Austria, the Hutchison 3G/Orange merger led to a 20% increase in prices in the year following the consolidation, becoming a textbook case cited by the European Commission. A study of Copenhagen Economics modeling all European mergers of this type estimates the increase at more than 10%, compared to 5 to 7% in a market with four players. Marc Bourreau, economist specializing in telecommunications at Télécom Paris, summarizes the mechanics: in a saturated market, operators can no longer attract new customers, their only adjustment variable to finance 5G and fiber investments is therefore to increase the average revenue per subscriber.

Your rights in the face of a possible increase

Rest assured: nothing will change immediately. According to Benoît Cœuré, president of the Competition Authority, the regulatory process will take up to 18 months, and the technical migration of subscribers will then extend over an additional 12 to 24 months. Above all, article L. 224-33 of the Consumer Code protects you: any price change to your contract must be notified to you one month in advance, and gives you the right to cancel free of charge for four months. This mechanism constitutes a powerful brake against any sudden increase, because operators would risk causing a massive flight from the customer base that they have just acquired at a high price.

The joker: a fourth imposed operator?

The Competition Authority will not say yes without conditions. The most likely scenario to validate the operation is inspired by the Spanish model: imposing the transfer of radio frequencies from the SFR spectrum to a new entrant, accompanied by an advantageous national roaming agreement. The Romanian operator Digi is often cited as a natural candidate for this role, with its experience as a disruptor in Spain and Italy. However, this hypothesis remains uncertain and depends on the decisions of regulators. Without such an actor, consumer associations like UFC-Que Choisir recall a worrying precedent: in 2005, the Competition Council imposed a fine of 534 million euros on Orange, SFR and Bouygues for cartel on the mobile market, precisely when there were three of them.